An oil/energy post even musclecarjohn will like

Discussion in 'The BS Topic' started by Rick WI, Aug 4, 2008.

  1. Rick WI

    Rick WI Veteran Member

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    About 6 seeks ago we were looking at $135 crude and peaked in the high $140 range. Natural gas peaked nearly $14.00 and it appeared the world as we know it would end.

    Today oil touched below $120 and now is trading $120.81. Natural gas is trading $8.625. I predict news shows throughout the evening will blather to no end as to why or why not and everyone will be happy something appears to be making a difference. I'll listen and I think just assume it's mental masturb.....

    Of course these are still seriously high prices and given all the info over the wires today I really don't see any meaningful reasons for the downturn in the energy complex.

    I do see hidden little nuggests of the Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) bearing down on speculators trading as non spec traders as well as quarterly profit reports showing some huge losses and Semgroup of course losing billions as reported a few weeks ago.

    I also heard a rumor Iran will issue a letter of response tomorrow to the Western Nations on their Nuclear issue. This faint and likely not reliable rumor indicated they may be willing to negotiate, or at least tone things down some. Crude specs HATE to see that kind of rumor. Nigerian Rebals indicated they want to blow up some more oil lines, and that's not good for us as we import a lot of Nigerian crude.

    Worst thing though is if prices for gasoline fall too hard demand will pick up and if year over year consumption begins to go flat, in other words no reductions in demand, pricing will go up and go up hard.

    I have not read all the stories yet about Obamas plans, re: strategic reserve as well as off shore drilling, but that certainly didn't hurt todays fall in pricing. Although none of these ideas will help us in the near future.

    I'll count this bull run over if I see crude trade under $100. That's just a gut feel right now. It will be good for consumers if crude could trade and hold under $120 in the next couple of days.

    Wednesday inventory reports come out for crude, gasoline and diesel. Hopefully the inventory numbers don't show another 3 million drawdown in gasoline like they did last week.

    The real driver I think to traders taking a bath today is economic news, which isn't too rosy. When both crude and the Dow are down that's not too good.

    Hopefully demand stays in check, Iran chooses to pause enrichment and investments in aternatives continues to grow.

    For us East of the Mississippi, weather over the next two weeks looks almost cold. That's good for natural gas pricing. You poor suckers in Texas though are baking like apple pie. No end in sight for you poor souls in the Southwest.
     
  2. Buickfunnycar

    Buickfunnycar Veteran Member Lifetime Gold Member

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    Thanks Rick for keeping us all updated...:)
     
  3. 67lemanster

    67lemanster Veteran Member Lifetime Gold Member

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    i still think prices have come down because of less demand, better mileage cars and people acutally trying to use less fuel. but other than putting the hose in the tankie thing i dont know much about energy stuff. oh yeah we have the barnett shale in near backyard but my drilling rig is broke. lol lol lol
     
  4. Dave Nelson

    Dave Nelson Veteran Member

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    Obama says if we air up our tires,and tune-up our cars everything will be allright.I here McCain is handing out tire pressure keychains!!!!!!!!!!:eek: :eek:
     
  5. Camaro4life18

    Camaro4life18 Veteran Member

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    Here's whats gotten me about the gas prices. Gas station buys gas for a certain price, the price is based off of the crude oil price at the time and what not......then a car bomb blows up within 20miles of some middle eastern oil rig and crude oil jumps up for a day...ON THAT SAME DAY the price of gas at the station JUMPS....WHY!?!?!?!?!?!?

    Its already been paid for at the cheaper price before the jump in crude oil....


    AND....even when crude oil goes down in price...our gas prices stay about the same...
     
  6. SpeedAddict02

    SpeedAddict02 Veteran Member Lifetime Gold Member

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    I've always said the same thing.. Dont make any sense.. It's all a friggin sham.. unfortunately we are the ones taking it in the rear.
     
  7. SpeedAddict02

    SpeedAddict02 Veteran Member Lifetime Gold Member

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    last week i was at a gas station filling up my work truck.. while i was there they were changing the prices.. up .07cents on 87 oct, and down on 93.. but didnt touch 89. now all 3 were within 2 cents of eachother.. guess they needed to get rid of that 89 and get people to stop buying the 87..
     
  8. rscamaro73

    rscamaro73 Administrator Staff Member

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    You know that "89" is a mix of 87 and 92 right ? Its just metered when it hits the pumps....check out the colors of the caps in the ground of the gas stations. There's usually only 2 types.....
     
  9. Aceshigh

    Aceshigh Veteran Member Lifetime Gold Member

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    Thanks for the inside info Rick.

    Personally I just hope to see prices back in the $2 range.....but i'm not holding my breathe.
    I've made my vehicle change to compensate for prices and reduce my own consumption.

    The avg city mpg of my bikes and the Lexus combined is 30mpg.

    Speculators. He already said that in his post that Iran is possibly negotiating and
    toning things down, and that's not good for specs to jack up pricing.....
    However the Nigerian Rebels bit might counteract it, and give them what they need....:screwup:
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2008
  10. li0nhart123

    li0nhart123 Veteran Member

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    just to keep things clear...

    there is a difference in cheap gas when things are booming and cheap gas when things are in recession.

    gas is cheap when things are booming because there is so much of it that it is inexpensive and the developed world buys it without even thinking about. It actaully becomes part of daily routine.

    gas is cheap during rough times because people are no longer able to afford it and have to cut back on everything...less demand = drop in price...When people have to make a judgment as to cut back on something that is an integral part of life...this is an indicator of a stress....if this something is an economic commodity..it may indicate economic recession or depression.
     

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